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Two Australian Collins class submarines at HMAS Stirling Royal Australian Navy base in Perth in 2021. Photo: EPA-EFE

Plan to provide Aukus nuclear submarines unveiled by US, Britain, Australia leaders

  • Canberra will purchase up to five conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines starting in the early 2030s
  • Plan comes 18 months after allies announced new trilateral security pact that has angered Beijing
Australia will purchase up to five conventionally armed, nuclear-powered US submarines starting early in the 2030s followed a decade later by production of a new class of “SSN Aukus” nuclear-powered submarines developed in concert with the US and Britain to counter China’s growing regional footprint, leaders of the three countries announced on Monday.
The formal declaration by President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese comes 18 months after the nations unveiled the Aukus military alliance, stoking Beijing’s ire.

Biden on Monday stressed that the vessels were nuclear-powered but not nuclear-armed. China has repeatedly accused the alliance of weakening nuclear non-proliferation objectives.

“These boats will not have any nuclear weapons of any kind of them,” Biden said against a backdrop of US naval vessels and nuclear submarines at an outdoor ceremony at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego. “We’re going to be the best in the world.”

In an aside to reporters a short while later, Biden said he was not worried that China would see Aukus as aggressive, adding that he would speak with President Xi Jinping soon, without indicating when.

Selling Australia up to five US Virginia-class submarines will avoid a “capability gap” between the time its Collins-class diesel-electric subs are retired in the 2030s and the new SSN Aukus vessels coming online a decade later, a senior White House official said.

The alliance will integrate trilateral submarine operations, greatly extend the range of Australia’s underwater fleet and allow coordinated patrols far closer to the Asian mainland without a port call.

A second senior US official denied that the new alliance aimed to contain China. Rather, it was Beijing that was prompting an increasingly resolute response among US allies in the Indo-Pacific, he said, citing its “provocations” in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, military exercises with Russia, border clashes with India and “economic warfare” with Australia.

Since the initial Aukus announcement, its members have been laying plans to share technology, bring the submarines on line, guard against nuclear proliferation and bulk up Australia’s expertise.

The Quad says it’s a ‘positive alternative’ to China. Can it deliver for Asia?

During the alliance’s first phase, now under way, US and UK nuclear-powered submarines will visit Australia regularly, giving workers and crews time to expand port facilities, train jointly and build up maintenance and shipbuilding skills.

Once Australia is up to speed, around 2027, the three English-speaking partners will establish a regular visitation schedule in Australia involving four US and one UK submarines to be known as Submarine Rotational Forces West, expanding the number of American and British underwater vessels in the Pacific at any given time.

This is designed to deter Beijing from considering hostilities against self-governing Taiwan before the full submarine building programme is complete, analysts said.

The second phase, starting in the early 2030s, will see Canberra buy the three US Virginia-class submarines with an option to acquire two more.

In the third phase, planned for the late 2030s, Australia and Britain will build SSN Aukus vessels that work off British designs – among the UK’s most advanced is the Astute-class fleet – and incorporate US technology.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks with journalists aboard a plane bound for California on Sunday, to meet US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Photo: Pool via AP

The first British-built SSN Aukus ships will hit the water in the late 2030s, followed by the Australian-built vessels by the early 2040s.

Canberra said it had no intention of using the shared Aukus nuclear propulsion technology to develop nuclear weapons. It has also vowed to leave the uranium enrichment to others and handle all spent nuclear waste in Australia.

“This is going to require significant improvements in industrial bases in all three countries,” the first senior US official said. “And Aukus will adhere to the highest non-proliferation standards.”

On Monday, Britain unveiled an integrated defence and diplomacy review, a day after London confirmed plans to increase defence spending by £5 billion (US$6 billion) over the next two years and introduce new measures to address China’s “increasingly concerning” military, financial and diplomatic activities.
Australia has likewise signalled plans to boost its defence budget, while the Pentagon on Monday announced its largest-ever requested spending increase.

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“Our goal is to deter, because competition does not mean conflict,” US Deputy Defence Secretary Kathleen Hicks said in Washington. “Still, we must have the combat credibility to win if we must fight.”

Monday’s ceremony was held amid flags, bunting and a long line of American sailors clad in starched white uniforms.

“We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order,” the leaders said in a joint statement.

“The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come.”

American officials sought to play down budgetary and related challenges facing the three countries, adding that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago had reinforced support for a strong defence among the three democracies.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi make a joint statement following their meeting last week in New Delhi. Photo: EPA-EFE
However, some analysts warned that the programme’s cost could be problematic, particularly for Britain following the toll exacted by Brexit, its economic divorce from the European Union.

The 115-metre (377-foot) long Virginia-class vessels cost about US$2.8 billion each, and the 97 metre-long Astute-class submarines cost about US$2 billion apiece.

Beijing has decried the alliance, warning that Aukus risks launching an arms race, furthering a “Cold War mentality” and threatens to undermine global non-proliferation efforts.

American officials on Sunday said the alliance would be fully transparent and adhere to the highest non-proliferation standards. Beijing, for its part, has embarked on an aggressive nuclear weapons build-up in recent years and opted not to participate in global treaties to check their spread.

As relations between Washington and Beijing have hit new lows, analysts note a pattern of tit-for-tat moves, with each convinced the other side is the aggressor.

Aukus pact, rare earth production will keep Australia self-reliant: Albanese

“Each step that the US takes with allies to bolster defence and deterrence is described by Washington as a response to a China challenge and by Beijing as yet another move to contain and encircle China,” said Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute and formerly a long-time State Department and National Security Council official.

“The net effect of Monday’s Aukus announcement may well be to ensure China’s military can get generous funding for its own submarine – and anti-sub warfare – programmes,” he said.

Another challenge is that the US is well behind in producing its own Virginia-class submarines. Fewer than two dozen have been delivered of the 66 planned, which could leave it distracted.

In addition, a tangle of US export control regulations potentially undercut efforts to share advanced American military hardware. The rules have become more complicated as Washington works to keep advanced semiconductors and related technologies out of Beijing’s hands.

“Without changes to the rules governing export controls, America is unlikely to see its allies either as capable or perhaps as willing to contribute to regional security,” said Charles Edel, Australia chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

US President Joe Biden speaks on national security with then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) and then-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (left) in Washington in 2021. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS

“This is a question about whether there will be enough political pressure to force changes in the way the US shares sensitive technology and collaborates with both Australia and Britain,” he added.

Even as the Biden administration has made stronger alliances a cornerstone of its China strategy, China has sought to bolster its own partnerships, underscored last week when Beijing brokered a rapprochement between long-time adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The development coincided with both powers seeking to score points and claim the moral high ground amid their intensifying competition.

“For China, drawing European powers like the UK deeper into Asia’s security mix may be even more disturbing than the prospect of Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines,” said Russel.

“Beijing will add the Aukus announcement to a list of offences that already includes American military aid to Ukraine and Taiwan,” he said.

“They will paint a sharp contrast between US weapons sales and China’s diplomatic success in brokering an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.”

Additional reporting by Khushboo Razdan in New York and Chad Bray in London

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