Warm Russian ties are key to China’s Arctic aspirations: report

However, US think tank says closer China-Russia relations will also create uncertainties in the region
Arctic routes could cut transport costs and risks, report says

US-China relations

Kristin Huang

Published: 2:00pm, 2 Oct 2022

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China’s influence in, and access to, the Arctic will increase over the coming decade if Beijing fosters closer ties with Moscow, according to a new research report by the US think tank Rand Corporation.

However, this closer relationship would create uncertainties in the Arctic, said the report, which was released on Wednesday.

Cooperation between China and Russia has deepened over the past decade, with the two nations signing several commercial and shipping agreements along the Northern Sea Route.

The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which runs from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along the Russian Arctic coast past Siberia, through the Bering Strait and along Russia’s far east.

In 2017, the two countries also endorsed the joint development of a “Polar Silk Road”.

China’s concept of the Polar Silk Road – introduced in its first official Arctic White Paper in 2018 – involves creating new freight routes linking East Asia, western Europe and North America through the Arctic Circle. It also covers scientific, environmental and resource extraction efforts.

“From China’s viewpoint, there are clear benefits to cooperating with Russia in these areas,” the Rand report said.

“Shipping represents more than 90 per cent of China’s international trade transportation and the opening of Arctic routes would reduce maritime transportation costs as well as risks in other transportation routes, alleviate China’s energy shortage, and make China a hub for transporting Arctic energy to the world,” it said.

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Yet the evolving China-Russia relationship will be a major factor in shaping Chinese activities and presence in the Arctic, according to the report, particularly if Russia’s economy declines in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and lower trade.

“Moscow may look to China for help in the realisation of its Arctic development goals, including investments in energy extraction and development of the [Northern Sea Route] for commercial shipping,” the report said.

But it also said Russia was likely to remain wary of a Chinese military presence in the Arctic.

“Two scenarios could potentially lead to such presence: one that sees a weakening of Russia, and its inability to hold back a Chinese presence it remains suspicious of; and another that sees, on the opposite, a strengthening and emboldening of Russia, which feels it can benefit from a Chinese presence it does not fear any more.”

A recent joint patrol seems to point to the second scenario. Last week, a US Coast Guard ship on routine patrol in the Bering Sea near Alaska came across Chinese and Russian warships conducting a joint military operation that analysts say was a “show of solidarity”.

The encounter came one month after Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said China was increasingly interested in the Arctic, and Russia had intensified its activities in the resource-rich region by “reopening Soviet-era bases” and stationing and testing new state-of-the-art weapons, reported Deutsche Welle in late August.

Relations between China and Russia have been closely watched, after Beijing declared in February that the country’s friendship with Russia had “no limits”.

China is not an Arctic state but it is an observer along with 12 other countries in the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that addresses issues faced by Arctic governments and the people of the Arctic.

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China’s interest in the Arctic has grown as melting ice has opened up new shipping lanes but it is not a top international priority for Beijing.

No matter how Chinese influence in the Arctic could possibly grow, Beijing’s presence in the region is limited, according to the Rand report.

“Chinese investments and presence in the North American sections of the Arctic remain fairly limited,” the report said.

“The Arctic presents strong factors of resilience that make it unlikely that Chinese investments in infrastructure could present the negative … outcomes that other regions of the world have experienced.”